UKRAINIAN PRESIDENT SHAKES REGION

quoting another site: "Besides Belarus, the Ukraine is a place where former Soviet nuclear weapons have disappeared. While Ukraine has helped NATO and the U.N. fight terrorism, the people of computer-savvy Ukraine have some problems with violent crime, economic crime, organized crime, and human trafficking for purposes of prostitution. Many criminal groups consider the port of Odessa an advantageous route to transport drugs and contraband. A good deal of drugs come from neighboring Moldova. Experts say Ukrainian organized crime is stronger than Russian organized crime."

(from : http://faculty.ncwc.edu/toconnor/areas/europe.htm )

Ukraine Special Weapons

After the disintegration of the USSR, Ukraine found itself in possession of the world's third largest nuclear arsenal. There were 176 launchers of intercontinental ballistic missiles with some 1,240 warheads on Ukrainian territory. This force consisted of 130 SS-19s, each capable of delivering six nuclear weapons, and 46 SS-24s, each armed with ten nuclear weapons. An additional 14 SS-24 missiles were present in Ukraine, but not operationally deployed with warheads. Several dozen bombers with strategic nuclear capabilities were armed with some 600 air-launched missiles, along with gravity bombs. In addition, as many as 3,000 tactical nuclear weapons rounded out an arsenal totalling approximately 5,000 strategic and tactical weapons.

(from : http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/ukraine/

)

Ukraine Admits Missile Transfers - Paul Kerr

Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that a total of 12 Kh-55 medium-range, air-launched cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads were transferred from Ukraine to Iran and China in the last five years.

(from : http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2005_05/Ukraine.asp )

Kh55 cruise missile, thermonuclear warhead

Soviet Nukes Missing - Phil Brennan, NewsMax.com (Tuesday, Sept. 17, 2002)

"Out of 2,400 nuclear warheads which were on Ukrainian territory, the withdrawal of only 2,200 warheads has been verified. The fate of the remaining 200 warheads is unknown," Simonenko told Pravda.ru.

( from : http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2002/9/17/155150.shtml )

This act of firing his two best supporters, (the strong Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and her rival Petro Poroshenko ), seems to be an act of evening the odds, since they could not work together. Honestly, it's like iving them a think-time. These two can't stay out of politics. I really expect Tymoshenko to rise early as an opponent to President Yushchenko, as she might have been stagnating on his coat-tails. Poroshenko has pledged his loyalty to Yushchenko, and, they are family.

Yushchenko won't last long without Poroshenko's financial backing. (Plus, Poroshenko has too much invested to admit it's not going to yield gains.) This represents a move of Yushchenko towards the middle, having committed himself to those most accused of corruption. But, this is also a consolidation, the type of isolation that either leads to a strong, lasting, centralized govenment, or collapse, riot, and revolution.

If Poroshenko doesn't re-emerge soon, along with his well funded friends on the Special council just dissolved, then Yushchenko will expect to resign by the end of winter.

As for the rest of the now unemployed government, they are corrupt, so they'll take whatever they can get. This is a power grab, by both sides, or a means for Yushchenko to give in to pressure and resign in failure, should he find himself without a corner to turn to. Nor will quarter be offerred, excepting that if the two factions gain a common ground. This won't happen without Yushchenko, so odds are rising from "desparate" to "possible" for him.

How does the U.S. make this happen? We aren't likely to make any move other than overtures towards peace. (We might be able to buy out Poroshenko, forcing Yushchenko to play ball with Tymoshenko.)

speculation...

-=T=-

Ukrainian National Anthem